- Bitcoin reclaimed the $115,000 mark amid a broad crypto rebound, with intraday prints near $115,700.
- Softer US inflation and rising odds of a Fed rate cut bolstered risk appetite across digital assets.
- Derivatives data show a dense $115K options wall and increased hedging, keeping volatility elevated.
- Short liquidations topped hundreds of millions, accelerating the move as order books showed stair-step resistance.
After a choppy stretch, Bitcoin pushed back above $115,000 as weekend gains spilled into the new week and risk assets caught a bid. At its strongest, BTC changed hands near $115,700, while broader crypto benchmarks also firmed on improving macro signals.
The rebound was underpinned by cooler-than-expected US inflation, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a burst of forced short covering in derivatives. While the mood improved, traders kept one eye on key levels and event risk, adopting a tone that’s optimistic but measured.
What pushed BTC back above $115,000
Fresh inflation data showed US CPI running at about 3% year over year, slightly below consensus, nudging markets toward the view that the Fed’s next move could be a 25 bps cut at an upcoming policy meeting. That prospect helped revive demand for risk, with BTC leading and Ether clearing the $4,100 area at one point.
Market analysts framed the rise as part of a broader, sustained trend rather than a brief spike, pointing to a mix of macro optimism, on-chain supply dynamics and increasingly constructive technical patterns. Other large caps like Solana, XRP and BNB also firmed, reflecting a market-wide bid rather than a BTC-only move.
Derivatives point to a heavy $115K options wall
Options positioning remains concentrated around the $115,000 strike, a cluster that traders often describe as an “options wall.” This density of open interest can prompt gamma hedging by market makers as spot approaches the strike, sometimes translating into sell flows that temper upside momentum.
Data cited by desks show that options notional in the neighborhood of $115K runs into the billions of dollars, with sizable expiries due in the coming weeks. In parallel, the put/call ratio flipped recently, signaling a preference for protection even as BTC retook key territory—an indication that participants expect bumps along the way.
Funding rates on perpetual futures hovered near a muted ~0.01%, a stark contrast with prior euphoric phases, while derivatives volumes pushed about 40% above their 30‑day average. The upshot: positioning is active but relatively cautious, and volatility premium remains in focus.
A short squeeze added fuel
An intense burst of liquidations swept through the market, with roughly $160 million in shorts cleared in about half an hour at one stage. That flurry translated into a classic short squeeze, where rising prices force additional buy-ins from short sellers.
Across the last 24 hours, total short liquidations approached $350 million, more than half tied to BTC and ETH perpetuals, according to multiple derivatives dashboards. The episode underscored how a modest shift in sentiment can quickly cascade into outsized moves when positioning skews one way.
Levels traders are watching next
From a market-structure perspective, the $110,000 zone—recently reclaimed—now needs to act as a durable shelf to keep the bullish narrative intact. Above, liquidity maps show pockets of resting asks stair-stepping from roughly $112,000 toward the dense $115,000 area, implying incremental progress rather than a straight-line breakout.
On the downside, interest in protective puts increased, with popular strikes clustered around $100,000–$105,000. That hedging may cushion drawdowns, but it also telegraphs where participants perceive crucial support should momentum falter.
How the next few weeks could unfold
Some research desks note that BTC’s recent “fear to recovery” sequence aligns with historical templates following a swift ~10% pullback and consolidation. One study suggests the setup statistically favors a 15–30% rebound over the following 8–12 weeks, mapping potential targets into the $125K–$130K region if conditions stay supportive.
Still, event risk looms. A friendly inflation path and a dovish-leaning Fed could see BTC probe above $116,000 and beyond that options wall, while a less supportive macro tone could drag price back toward $105,000. Given the tug-of-war between hedging flows and improving fundamentals, traders expect elevated but navigable volatility.
With BTC hovering comfortably around the mid‑$115Ks and breadth improving across majors, the market’s tone has shifted from defensive to cautiously constructive; even so, the $115K battleground, rate‑cut expectations and positioning dynamics will likely dictate whether this leg builds into a more durable advance or pauses for air.
