UMorgan Stanley Wehlisa Intengo Yesiyingi, Wehlisa Intengo Yaya Ku-$38 Phakathi Kweziphepho Ze-USDC

I-Criptolog » Izinhlamvu zemali » i-USDC » UMorgan Stanley Wehlisa Isilinganiso, Wanciphisa Intengo Yakhe Yaya Ku-$38 Phakathi Kweziphepho Ze-USDC

I-Circle Internet Group (CRCL) ithole inhlekelele ngoMsombuluko ngemuva kokuba uMorgan Stanley ekhiphe ukwehliswa okukhulu, esusa isitoko sisuka ku -Equal Weight siye ku-Underweight futhi yehlisa umgomo wayo wentengo cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu yaya ku-$38. Lesi sinyathelo sibonisa ukukhathazeka okujulile ngenjini yemali engenayo eyinhloko yomhlinzeki we-stablecoin , njengoba ukunikezwa kwe-USDC okujikelezayo kubhekene nezingcindezi zesakhiwo ezivela ezinhlangothini eziningi. Isitoko sehle cishe ngo-6% ekuhwebeni kwangaphambi kwemakethe, okwenezela ekwehleni konyaka kuze kube manje cishe ngo-30%.

Ukwehla akukona nje ukusebenza kwekota eyodwa kuphela . Umhlaziyi uJames Faucette ukhombe umbono wemali engenayo yesikhathi eside obuthakathaka oqhutshwa ukukhula okuhamba kancane kwe-USDC , ukuncintisana okwandayo okuvela ezikhwameni zemali ze-tokenized money market, kanye nokushintshashintsha okuya emalini engenayo yokuthengiselana ephansi. UMorgan Stanley wehlise izibikezelo zakhe zokuhlinzekwa kwe-USDC ngo-33% ngo-2027 kanye no-44% ngo-2028, okuholele ezilinganisweni ze-GAAP EPS ezingaphansi kuka-3% kokuvunyelwana ngo-2027 kanye no-20% ngaphansi kuka-2028. Inothi lebhange ligcizelele ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwe-USDC kuveza ukuzwela kwemali engenayo egciniwe, inkinga ebalulekile njengoba imali engenayo egciniwe ihlala ingumthombo wemali engenayo we-Circle.

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Ithisisi kaMorgan Stanley yokwehla kwentengo isekelwe ezinkingeni ezintathu zesakhiwo. Okokuqala, izimali zemakethe yemali ezithokheniwe zidla izilinganiso ze-stablecoin . I-BlackRock isanda kwethula imikhiqizo emibili emisha esekelwe ku-blockchain—i-BSTBL ne-BRSRV—eklanyelwe ukufaneleka njengezimpahla zokugcina ezifanelekile ngaphansi koMthetho we-GENIUS. Le mikhiqizo ivumela abanikazi bezikhungo ukuthi bathole izinzuzo ze-Treasury ngaphandle kokudlula ku-USDC, bencintisana ngqo ngemali ezoba se-stablecoin ye-Circle. I-BlackRock isivele iphethe amaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-60 ezigciniwe ze-Circle, kanti i-CFO yayo ithe inkampani ifuna ukuba “umphathi wesitoreji se-stablecoin okhethwayo.”

Okwesibili, ukwanda kwe-Open USD (OUSD) kusongela ezomnotho zokusabalalisa ze-Circle . I-OUSD iyi-stable coin ephikisanayo esabalalisa cishe yonke imali engenayo egciniwe kubalingani bayo bokusabalalisa abangu-140, kunokuba iyigcine njengemali engenayo yabakhiphi. Le modeli yenza kube kubi kakhulu ngokwesakhiwo ukuthi i-Circle ivikele izikhuthazo zayo zokusabalalisa. UMorgan Stanley waphawula ukuthi i-OUSD “ifaka ukubusa okwabiwe kanye nezomnotho ezigciniwe, ikhuphule izindleko zokuvikela ukusatshalaliswa kwe-USDC.” Isitoko sehle ngo-17.5% ngosuku i-OUSD eyamenyezelwa ngalo ngoJuni.

Okwesithathu, ipulatifomu yokukhokha ye-ejenti ye-Circle yehlulekile ukuthola ukuthandwa okunenjongo . Naphezu kokubekwa kwenkampani njengomhlinzeki wengqalasizinda yokukhokha yendabuko ye-AI , inani lokuthengiselana kwansuku zonke kule pulatifomu lehle laya cishe ku-$41,900, kanti isilinganiso sokuthengiselana singama-$0.24 kuphela. UMorgan Stanley uchaze lesi sigaba “njengesingenamsebenzi” esithombeni sezezimali se-Circle, okuphazamisa indaba ebalulekile yokukhula.

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Akubona bonke abahlaziyi abavumelana nombono wokwehla kwentengo. Ngaso leso sikhathi ekuseni, i-TD Cowen yaqala ukumboza i-Circle ngesilinganiso se-Buy kanye nomgomo wentengo ongu-$82, okusho ukuthi cishe ikhuphuke ngo-31% kusukela ekupheleni kwangoLwesihlanu. Umhlaziyi uBryan Bergin uphikise ngokuthi imakethe ayikunaki ukuthuthuka kwe-Circle ibe umdlali wesikhulumi . Ukhulume ngenzuzo yezinyanga eziyishumi nambili engu-$2.86 billion, ekhuphuke ngo-51% ngonyaka, futhi wakhomba imikhiqizo esuselwa emalini efana ne-Circle Payments Network, i-Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol, kanye ne-USYC tokenized money market fund njengezinto ezikhuthaza ukukhula. I-TD Cowen ibikezela ukukhula okuhlanganisiwe kwe-USDC ngonyaka okungu- 31% kuze kube ngu-2030.

Igebe lamaRandi angu-44 phakathi kukaMorgan Stanley elingu-$38 kanye nelikaTD Cowen elingu-$82 libonisa ukungavumelani okukhulu ngekusasa leCircle. Icala lebhere libona umkhiphi wemali engenayo egciniwe ecindezelwa ukuncintisana kanye nokucindezelwa kwemali engenayo, kuyilapho icala lenkunzi libona ipulatifomu yengqalasizinda yezezimali enenhlanganisela yemali engenayo ehlukahluka ngale kokukhishwa kwe-stablecoin. I-JPMorgan iphinde yaveza ukukhathazeka, iphawula ukuthi isivumelwano esibuyekeziwe sokwabelana ngemali engenayo ne-Hyperliquid sidala "inkinga yesiboshwa" lapho zombili izinkampani ziphoqeleka ukuthi zinikeze imibandela engcono kubalingani abakhulu bokusabalalisa, zinciphise imali engenayo ehlanganisiwe ngamaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-60-80 ngonyaka.

Izingcindezi Zokulawula Neze-Macro

Ukwehla kwentengo kuza phakathi kobuthakathaka obukhulu bemakethe ye-crypto, lapho i-Bitcoin yehla ngaphansi kwama-$63,000 futhi ilahlekelwa cishe ama-28% enani layo ngo-2026. Umthetho i-CLARITY Act, umthethosivivinywa ophelele wesakhiwo semakethe ye-crypto, awuzange uvele kukhalenda leSenate kuleli sonto, okuphakamisa ukungaqiniseki mayelana nokucaca komthetho. UBernstein uxwayise ngokuthi ukwehluleka ukuqhubekisela phambili lo mthethosivivinywa kungabangela ukwehla okwengeziwe kwezimakethe ze-crypto. Umthethosivivinywa kazwelonke we-OCC we-Circle unikeza izinzuzo ezithile zomthetho, kodwa ukungaqiniseki komthetho kunezela olunye ungqimba lwengozi kumkhiphi we-stablecoin ozimele.

Imodeli yemali engenayo ye-Circle nayo iyazwela amazinga enzalo. Njengoba i-Federal Reserve ikhombisa ukwehla kwamanani okungenzeka, imali engenayo egciniwe ngedola ngalinye le-USDC iyehla. Izilinganiso ze-EPS zikaMorgan Stanley zika-2028, ezingama-20% ngaphansi kokuvunyelwana, cishe zihlanganisa lokhu kuzwela kwamanani. I-Tether, enesakhiwo sezindleko esiphansi kakhulu, ingamelana kangcono namanani aphansi, kodwa izindleko zenkampani yomphakathi ye-Circle kanye nezabelo zesitoko ezikhethwayo zenza kube sengozini enkulu.

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Okufanele Ukubuke Emalini Etholwayo Yekota Yesibili

I-Circle ihlelelwe ukubika imali engenayo yekota yesibili ka-2026 ngoLwesithathu, umhlaka-5 Agasti. I-Wall Street ilindele i-GAAP EPS engu-$0.16 emalini engenayo engu-$713.7 million. Izilinganiso ezibalulekile okufanele zibhekwe zifaka phakathi izitayela zokuphakelwa kwe-USDC, imajini yezindleko zokusabalalisa ngaphandle kwemali engenayo (efinyelele ku-41% ku-Q1), ivolumu yokukhokha ye-ejenti, kanye nanoma yikuphi ukuphawula ngokuvuselelwa kwesivumelwano sezentengiselwano seCoinbase esihlelelwe umhlaka-18 Agasti. Impendulo yabaphathi ku-note kaMorgan Stanley izoba yinto ebalulekile ekwakheni imizwa yabatshalizimali.

Ekugcineni, ukwehliswa kwentengo kugqamisa ukubalwa okubanzi kwemodeli yebhizinisi le-stablecoin. Njengoba ezinye izindlela ezisetshenzisiwe zikhula futhi izindleko zokusabalalisa zikhuphuka, ikhono le-Circle lokuvikela ezomnotho walo lizonquma ukuthi isitoko sithola phansi noma siyaqhubeka nokushelela. Intengo eqondiwe engu-$38 kungenzeka ingabi ukuphela kokukalwa kabusha uma izivunguvungu zesakhiwo ziqhubeka.

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