- Ukugeleza kwe-OTC kwezikhungo kufinyelele ku-72% ku-H1 2026, okugxila ekuthengisweni kwemali kuma-altcoin ambalwa.
- Ingcindezi yokuthengisa nge-spot ye-Altcoin isalokhu iphezulu eminyakeni emihlanu, kanye nezinyanga ezingu-15 zokuthengisa ngokuphelele.
- Ochwepheshe baxwayisa ngokuthi ukuhlangana kwezimali okubanzi kwesizini akunakwenzeka; ukugeleza kwemali ku-Bitcoin, i-Ethereum, kanye ne-RWA enamathokheni.
- Naphezu kokuhlangana okuhlukile kwamathokheni afana ne-TON, izinkomba zesakhiwo (inkomba ye-altseason ku-57) azibonisi ukujikeleza okuqinisekisiwe.
Imakethe ye-crypto ingena esigabeni lapho igama elithi “altseason” lingase lingasasho ukuthi lalisho ukuthini. Imininingwane yakamuva evela emithonjeni eminingi ikhomba ushintsho lwesakhiwo: abadlali bezikhungo babusa ukugeleza kwezimali okuqondile, uketshezi luqoqana eduze kwezimpahla ezimbalwa, kanye nemihlangano ebanzi eyayichaza imijikelezo yangaphambilini inika indawo yezinyathelo ezikhethiwe nezihlala isikhathi esifushane. Ngenkathi amanye ama-altcoin eveze izinzuzo ezimangalisayo, isithombe sonke sibonisa ukuthi i-altseason elandelayo—uma kwenzeka—izoba ncane futhi igxile kakhulu kunanini ngaphambili.
Umenzi wemakethe uWintermute ubike ukuthi izinkampani ezisebenza ndawonye ezikhungweni zikhiqize u-72% wokugeleza kwe-OTC okuqondile engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026 , isabelo esiphezulu kakhulu esike saqoshwa. Leso sibalo sikhuphuke sisuka ku-61% engxenyeni yesibili ka-2025 kanye no-59% ngonyaka odlule. Le nkampani iphinde yaphawula ukuthi inani lamathokheni ahlukile athengiswa yizikhungo likhule ngo-24% kuphela phakathi kuka-2024 no-2026, uma kuqhathaniswa no-76% kumakhasimende okuthengisa. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi izikhungo azigcini nje ngokuqhuba ivolumu eyengeziwe kodwa futhi zigxile esethi encane yezimpahla, okushiya "umsila omude" wama-altcoin ungenamali futhi ungenaki kangako.
Imisebenzi Yezikhungo Iphela Ngokushesha, Ukuthengisa Kuhlala Isikhathi Eside
Ukuhlaziywa kukaWintermute kokuziphatha ngemva kokwanda kwentengo kwe-token kwembula umehluko omkhulu phakathi kwabadayisi bezikhungo kanye nabadayisi bezitolo. Ngemva kokunyuka kwentengo ye-token kanye nomthamo, umsebenzi wezikhungo uvame ukuphela cishe ngosuku olulodwa , kuyilapho ukubamba iqhaza kwezitolo kuhlala kuphakeme cishe izinsuku ezintathu. Lesi sikhathi sisho ukuthi umfutho oqhutshwa ukuthenga kwezikhungo ungase ube mufushane, okunciphisa ithuba lokuhlangana okuqhubekayo kwama-token amancane. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukuqhekeka kwe-altcoin esikhathini esizayo kungaba bukhali kodwa futhi kube okufushane kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ezimpahleni ezingaphandle kokukhanya kwezikhungo.
Olunye ulwazi luhambisana nalokhu kuthambekela kokugxila. Isikhulu esiphezulu se-CryptoQuant uKi Young Ju uphawule ukuthi ukujikeleziswa kwendabuko kwenzuzo ye-Bitcoin ibe yi-altcoin encane "sekunyamalele," ngamanani amabili e-altcoin angaphansi kwe-Bitcoin acishe abe buthaka kakhulu kusukela ngo-2021. Okwamanje, ama-altcoin ayi-10 aphezulu angewona aqinile manje aqukethe cishe u-80.5% we-non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market cap , ngokusho kwe-CryptoQuant. UKaiko ubike ukuhlanganiswa okufanayo kokushintshaniswa: ngoJulayi 2025, ama-altcoin ayishumi amakhulu amele u-63% wevolumu yokuhweba ye-altcoin , kusukela cishe ku-50% ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule.
Ingcindezi Yokuthengisa Ifinyelela Emazingeni Aphezulu Eminyaka Emihlanu
Ngasohlangothini lokuthengisa, isithombe sicacile ngokufanayo. Abahlaziyi beKeyrock balandele ama-altcoin angu-437 abukhoma e-Binance USDT futhi bathola ukuthi ukuthengisa okuphelele kufinyelele ku-$90.6 billion ngoJuni 18, 2026 , izinga elijulile kakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu. Inkomba, elinganisa igebe phakathi kokuthenga nokuthengisa ngobudlova, ibilokhu imbi izinyanga ezingu-15 zilandelana. Okuwukuphela kwesikhathi eyaba yinhle ngaso kwakungoMeyi 2021, eduze nenani eliphakeme lomjikelezo wokugcina we-altcoin. Naphezu kwalokhu, ama-altcoin ayesalokhu ebalelwa ku-51% wevolumu yesikhathi esizayo ye-Binance ngoJuni 16, okuphakamisa ukujikeleza kusuka ekubambeni indawo kuya ekuhwebeni kwama-derivatives kunokushiywa ngokuphelele.
Abahlaziyi beKeyrock bachaze lokhu ngokuthi “ukuhweba ngokushintshana,” lapho ibhidi le-spot altcoin liba buthaka ngenkathi ukuqagela kuqhubekela phambili. Baphinde bakhomba izinguquko zesakhiwo njengokushintsha kusuka ekushintshisaneni okuhlanganisiwe kuya ekuhwebeni okuhlukaniswe kanye nokuhweba okungekho emthethweni, kodwa bavuma ukuthi ukuqongelela ama-spot “kwehle kakhulu.” Ukubusa kweBitcoin, cishe ku-56.6%, kusalokhu kuphakeme, futhi imali ibonakala ihlanganiswa ibe yiBitcoin noma ithuthela eceleni kunokuba ishintshe ibe yizimpahla ezisengozini enkulu.
Imibono Yochwepheshe: I-Broad Altseason Iyinto Yesikhathi Esidlule
Izibalo zemboni ziya ngokuya zingabaza ngokuphindeka kwezikhathi ze-altseason ezedlule. U-Andrei Grachev, umlingani ophethe we-DWF Labs, utshele i-Cointelegraph ukuthi izici ezintathu zibulala imihlangano emikhulu ye-altseason : ukutholakala ngokweqile kwamathokheni ancintisana ngemali elinganiselwe, isisekelo esincane sabahlanganyeli abasebenzayo, kanye nokukhula kwama-ETF e-crypto. "Inhlokodolobha ngeke iqhubeke nokukhula ngokushesha ngokwanele ukusekela konke," esho, ebikezela imihlangano emifushane eqhutshwa yindaba kanye nokushintshana kwemikhakha okungazelelwe. I-CIO ye-Bitwise uMatt Hougan ivumile, iphawula ukuthi imali yezikhungo manje igeleza iye kumathuluzi akhiqiza isivuno noma izimpahla ezinemali engenayo elinganiswayo.
Abahlaziyi abanjengoWilly Woo no-Arthur Hayes nabo bakhulume. UWoo ukholelwa ukuthi isizini ngayinye elandelayo izoba buthakathaka futhi ithinte amathokheni akhethiwe kuphela, kuyilapho uHayes ephikisana ngokuthi isizini iyenzeka ngaso sonke isikhathi—kodwa kuphela kumathokheni noma imikhakha ethile. UMarkus Thielen we-10x Research wengeze ngokuthi ngaphandle kwendaba eyodwa enamandla njengeDeFi ngo-2020 noma ama-NFT ngo-2021, ukukhula kungakhawulelwa emikhakheni ngayinye.
Izimpawu Ezixubile: Ama-Rallies Ahlukanisiwe vs. Idatha Yesakhiwo
Naphezu kwedatha yesakhiwo esinciphile, amanye ama-altcoin athumele ukusebenza okuvelele. I-Toncoin (TON) ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-100% ngesonto ngemuva kokuba i-CEO ye-Telegram uPavel Durov ememezele ukuthi ipulatifomu izoba yimbangela yokushintsha kwe-TON. I-Zcash (ZEC) ifinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu unyaka wonke, kanti amanye amathokheni afana ne-Internet Computer (ICP), i-Bittensor (TAO), kanye ne-Ondo (ONDO) nawo athole inzuzo. Lezi zinyathelo zivuselele ingxoxo ye-altseason ezinkundleni zokuxhumana, kanti abanye abadayisi bakhomba amaphethini afana nalawo angaphambi kokunyuka kuka-2021.
Kodwa-ke, i-Altcoin Season Index evela ku-BlockchainCenter okwamanje ifunda u-35, ngaphansi kakhulu komkhawulo ongu-75 obonisa i-altseason ebanzi. Ukufundwa kwakamuva okuvela komunye umthombo kubeka inkomba ku-57 kusukela ngoJulayi 21, 2026—isesezindaweni zokushintsha. Umbhangqwana we-ETH/BTC uzuze cishe u-8% phakathi nesonto kodwa uhlala ungaphansi kuka-12.5% ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule. Ukubusa kwe-Bitcoin kuthambekele ku-66%, kanti ukuhlangana kwezinsuku ezingu-14 phakathi kwama-altcoin ne-Bitcoin muva nje kufinyelele ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoJulayi 2025, okubonisa ukusebenza okukhethayo kunokuba kube yi-rally evumelanisiwe.
I-Dogecoin (DOGE) iseduze no-$0.195, ingaphansi ngo-70% ngo-2025, futhi ukululama kwayo kuncike ekushiseni okubanzi kwe-altseason. Abahlaziyi baphawula ukuthi uma kwenzeka ukujikeleza, cishe kuzoqala ku-Ethereum, Solana, kanye ne-caps ezinkulu, kanti izinhlamvu zemali ze-meme zisala ngemuva. Indlela eya ku-$0.50 ye-DOGE isalokhu ibuthakathaka futhi incike ekutheni i-Bitcoin ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-$90,000 kanye nokujikeleza kwemali okuqhubekayo.
Zonke lezi zindawo zedatha zidweba isithombe esifanayo: imakethe ye-altcoin idlula ekuguqulweni kwesakhiwo. Ukubusa kwezikhungo, ingcindezi yokuthengisa eqhubekayo, kanye nokuntuleka kwendaba ehlanganisayo kwenza ama-altseason abanzi abe mancane amathuba. Ngenkathi imihlangano ehlukene izoqhubeka, izinsuku zokukhuphuka kwe-altcoin ngayinye zingase ziphele. Abatshalizimali kufanele baqaphele ukwehla okuqhubekayo kokubusa kwe-Bitcoin, inkomba ekhulayo ye-altseason engaphezu kuka-75, kanye nombhangqwana oqinile we-ETH/BTC njengokuqinisekiswa kwanoma yikuphi ukujikeleza kwangempela. Kuze kube yileso sikhathi, imakethe ihlala isesimweni samathuba akhethiwe kunokuba kube yintokozo esakazekile.